UBS analysts expect Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) to report fiscal first-quarter results slightly ahead of guidance, which should help calm investor concerns about near-term growth amid regulatory and supply chain challenges, according to UBS.
In a preview note, UBS analysts said they expect April-quarter revenue of approximately $44 billion, modestly above the company’s $43 billion guidance.
The bank forecasts adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.76, below the Street’s $0.89 consensus, due largely to gross margin impacts from charges related to the U.S. H20 GPU export ban.
“This should be enough to satisfy investors because many (about half) expect revenue to be guided down quarter-on-quarter,” UBS analysts led by Timothy Arcuri wrote.
Despite trimming near-term estimates due to what it called a larger-than-expected impact from the H20 restrictions, UBS maintained its Buy rating on Nvidia. It lowered the 12-month price target from $180 to $175, reflecting reduced EPS forecasts.
Fiscal 2026 EPS is now expected at $4.22 versus a prior $4.86, with gross margin adjustments accounting for much of the delta.
For the July quarter, UBS sees revenue rising slightly to $44.6 billion, also above the consensus of $43.1 billion for the prior quarter, but below the Street’s $46.5 billion estimate.
Blackwell GPU shipments are expected to drive sequential growth, although ramp delays and limited inventory repurposing from the H20 ban are tempering upside. Still, UBS projects strong data center growth in the second half of the year as new products like the GB300 begin to ship.
“We do expect a confident overall tone on the call,” analysts said, but noted Nvidia may soften its second-half gross margin outlook due to its decision to delay higher-margin compute boards until next year.
For the April quarter, Blackwell revenue is projected to more than double to around $25 billion, with B200 chips making up nearly 70% of the unit mix as customers opt for the HGX platform.
Looking ahead, UBS forecasts Blackwell revenue to increase by about $9 billion quarter-over-quarter in Q2, reaching $34 billion, despite capacity constraints and delayed GB200 rack deliveries.
Overall, UBS sees Nvidia on track to reaccelerate through the back half of 2025, supported by new chip shipments and a potentially favorable shift in export rules.