President Donald Trump’s ’made in America’ push is aimed at bringing jobs back to the United States, but it may force U.S. automakers to give up market share to Korean and Japanese rivals as the Apr. 2 reciprocal tariff deadline fast approaches. 

"Targeting Mexico and Canada without touching Asia could hand market share to Japan and Korea," Bernstein analysts said in a note Tuesday.

The reality of U.S. auto production is far more global than the political narrative suggests. Nearly 50% of vehicles sold in the U.S. are imported, and even vehicles assembled in the U.S. contain almost 60% foreign-sourced parts, with Mexico playing an outsized role.

Tariff exposure is believed to be deeper and more widespread than assembly location suggests, the analysts said, cautioning that a phased approach is needed as blunt tariff actions risk hitting U.S. automakers harder than foreign competitors.

A sudden 25% tariff, especially on Mexico, would hit domestic U.S. manufacturers harder than offshore competitors, the analysts added, citing the firm’s comprehensive model of the U.S. auto value chain.

"A structured tariff roadmap - one that provides time for supply chains to shift and creates the certainty manufacturers need to act - would be best suited to support an “America first” agenda," they added.

Of the big three U.S. automaker’s, Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is particularly vulnerable, Bernstein said, with U.S. manufactured cars only having 30% domestic content. The analysts said their view on General Motors Company (NYSE:GM)’ exposure, remains largely unchanged, while Stellantis NV (BIT:STLAM) has a larger domestic supply chain than expected. 

If the Trump administration proceeds with a sudden 25% hike on automotive imports, the impact would be clearly seen in the sector’s bottom line. 

"A 25% on automotive imports lasting beyond four to six weeks would likely have a chilling effect on the entire sector as OEMs need to grapple with a significant impact to the bottom line," Bernstein added.