U.S. futures point higher amid tariff uncertainty, soft inflation data
Mar 12, 2025 .
- AdminU.S. stock futures rose on Wednesday, with investors assessing a softer-than-anticipated inflation reading and eyeing rapid twists in President Donald Trump’s tariff plans.
By 09:03 ET (13:03 GMT), the S&P 500 futures contract had added 63 points or 1.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures had climbed by 300 points or 1.6%, and Dow futures had increased by 302 points or 0.7%.
The main averages sank on Tuesday following a whipsaw session fueled by Trump’s on-and-off levies. The president had threatened to double import duties on Canadian steel and aluminum imports in response to a 25% levy imposed by the province of Ontario on electricity exports to the U.S.
Ontario later dropped the trade tax and Trump backed down from his warning.
Still, equities on Wall Street ended the session lower, as traders continued to fret over both the confusion sowed by Trump’s shifting pronouncements and the impact of the tariffs on U.S. economic growth. J.P. Morgan’s Chief Economist told reporters on Wednesday that the probability of the U.S. economy sliding into a recession this year stands at 40%.
“Investors are by no means sanguine on this subject and assume there will be tariff tape bombson a daily basis for the foreseeable future,” analysts at Vital Knowledge said in a note to clients.
Elsewhere, Trump’s expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum came into effect on Wednesday, marking the latest salvo in his drive to overhaul the U.S. trading relationship with both friends and foes alike.
In a statement, the European Commission, the executive branch of the EU, said it "regrets" the U.S. decision to impose the levies, saying they would be "disruptive to transatlantic trade," harmful to business and consumers and result in higher prices.
The Commission said it would adopt two-part countermeasures in response. The first step will see the Commission allow the suspension of previous retaliatory tariffs to lapse on April 1, a move that officials said would respond to "economic harm" done to 8 billion euros in EU steel and aluminum exports.
Brussels also vowed to place fresh tariffs on U.S. exports from next month as an answer to new American levies slapped on more than 18 billion euros in EU exports.
"The European Union must act to protect consumers and business. The countermeasures we take today are strong but proportionate," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
China’s foreign ministry has also said it would push to protect its interests and a top official in Japan warned that the trade taxes could imperil economic ties with Washington. Canada -- the largest supplier of steel and aluminum to the U.S. -- hit out at Trump’s action, as did other traditional U.S. allies Britain and Australia.
Inflation cools
U.S. consumer prices rose at a slower-than-anticipated pace in February, according to government data on Wednesday that will likely be closely monitored by Federal Reserve officials wary of the potential impact of President Donald Trump’s policies on inflation.
The headline consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation in the world’s largest economy, came in at 2.8% in the twelve months to February, cooling from 3.0% in January. Month-on-month, the gauge eased to 0.2% from 0.5%, figures from the Labor Department showed.
Economists had predicted readings of 2.9% and 0.3%, respectively.
Shelter costs accounted for nearly half of the monthly uptick and were partially offset by a 4% decline in airline fares and 1% drop in gasoline prices, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. A jump in egg prices, which have surged due to bird flu-linked shortages in hens, was also counterbalanced by easing costs in other categories like dairy and fruits and vegetables.
Stripping out volatile items like food and fuel, so-called "core" CPI was 3.1% year-over-year and 0.2% on a monthly basis. Both of these decelerated from the prior month and were below estimates.
The numbers will be among the last the Fed receives before its next policy gathering on March 18-19. The central bank pushed pause on an easing cycle at its last meeting in January and indicated that it will take a wait-and-see approach to further rate cuts, partly citing uncertainty around the inflationary impact of Trump’s plans for tariffs and immigration.
Economists have predicted that the levies in particular, which Trump has threatened to impose on friends and adversaries alike, could drive up prices and weigh on broader growth.
Intel shares rise amid reported joint venture interest
TSMC pitched a deal to chipmakers Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), AMD (NASDAQ:AMD), and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) over forming a joint venture to operate Intel’s foundry business in the U.S., Reuters reported on Wednesday, with Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) also being approached.
Shares in Intel rose by more than 8% in premarket U.S. trading following the report.
Under the proposal, TSMC (NYSE:TSM) will operate Intel’s factories but will not own more than 50% of the JV, the Reuters report said, citing four sources with knowledge of the matter.
Talks are in an early stage after initial reports that the Trump administration approached TSMC to help rescue Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), which is struggling with weak sales and a loss-making foundry division. Intel was also seen earlier considering a spin-off of its foundry unit.
Any deal will still require approval from Trump, who has signaled discomfort with Intel’s U.S. factories being owned by a foreign entity. TSMC’s 50% stake would accommodate for this, with the remainder of the JV operators all being U.S.-based.
Oil climbs
In commodities, oil prices rose in European trade, recovering mildly after increased concerns over U.S. tariffs and slowing economic growth recently dragged prices to more than three-year lows.
Investors were focusing on the cooling U.S. inflation data, as well as a monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries oil producer group for more cues on supply.
Crude has gained some ground this week, although sentiment remained largely on edge as concerns remained that tariff-related disruptions could lead to weak demand.
By 09:06 ET, Brent futures had gained 1.2% to $70.41 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures had climbed by 1.4% to $67.17 a barrel.